Tag Archives: spoteuro

Trade Leader Alex Kazmarck of SpotEuro presents forex market analysis.

Update

Euro top at 1.40 seems to be the magic number. Today, ECB President Draghi signaled during the Q & A part of the press conference that if inflation continues to come in at such low figures, the ECB is comfortable acting in June, sending the euro plummeting 100 pips. While we’ve seen the euro bounce back several times over the past few months, today’s price action is pointing to a more fundamental shift in policy. He also verbally intervened in the euro’s high exchange rate, saying that it plays a very large role in inflation figures and that something may have to be done   about it. Very important to keep an eye on June staff projections and inflation figures during the next few weeks.

Ukraine situation has recently been given a helping hand as Russian President Putin asked the Eastern Ukrainian population to hold off on the May 11th referendum; however, it seems the vote will go on anyways and I’m cautious at this temporary relief rally that we’ve seen in equities.

I continue to be bullish on the USD and today’s bounce in the Dollar index seems to have made clear that the bottom lies at the 79 level. Still, today’s markets are very dynamic, with many moving parts. Short term positions could see more volatility in the near term.

Technicals

Some charts to keep in mind during the next few weeks. Presented with little commentary.

EURUSD Daily

eurusd

GBPNZD Daily

GBPNZD

EURCAD Daily

EURCAD

Conclusion

While certain strategies could work very well in this market, specifically longer-term fundamentally driven, it’s been difficult to hold on to certain shorter term ideas. I think there are a lot of risks that have not been accurately priced in that are currently reflected in today’s record low European bond yields (Italy). While there could be a lot of volatility ahead of us, I think the opportunity lies in the US Dollar, not only for safe haven reasons, but more fundamentally in the economic recovery, which may or may not hold. It should be a win-win situation as a safe haven play and as a recovery play.

EUR/USD

Resistance: 1.3995

Support: 1.3810; 1.3700; 1.3500

Alex Kazmarck of Trade Leader SpotEuro presents analysis of the GBP/USD.

Technical Analysis

The weekly GBP/USD chart shows a very long consolidation pattern in the form of a triangle following the big drop during the 2008 crisis. Once the bottom formed near 1.3500 a retracement began to take shape, finding a top just under the 1.6800 level, which can be noted as the 50% retracement level. This triangle continued to consolidate for the next three years until the first quarter of 2013 when it was broken to the downside; however, the move to the downside lost traction mainly due to the dollar and the risk-on environment. There was a double bottom in mid-2013 before the sterling began to rally back towards the upper end of its previous four year range.

Looking at the daily chart, focusing on the July impulsive movement that created a new low during 2013 but was unable to close below the figure, I think many are surprised at the resilience the pound has shown during the last few months. Most of the move can be attributed to a weaker dollar (USD Index) along with supporting evidence of stronger economic growth within the UK; however, I think it’s too early to call this a new trend until we see a clear break above the earlier mentioned 50% retracement.

Once the pair closes above 1.68, it should get a positive boost from a technical perspective and it will be “open water” all the way to 1.76, the 62% retracement on the weekly chart.  If this occurs, the analysis would have lost much of short term bearish potential I’m looking for.

While I’m not calling for any specific direction at this time, I’d like to note that the false breakout to the downside has also created a possible head and shoulders formation with the orange box representing the left shoulder and the current rally representing the “head” of the formation. It’s also interesting to point out the rising trend-line from the triangle acting as resistance.  Having said that, there is also an inverted head and shoulders formation with the double bottom representing the head and the 1.5850 level representing the neck-line as can be seen on the daily chart.

Summary/Outlook

Technically, this setup can play out in several different ways and I am placing more emphasis on the USD than on the GBP. While technically this pair has rallied quite nicely following the false break and double bottom, I am reluctant to take a long at these levels and would prefer to short the pair into a possible risk-off scenario going into the December FOMC announcement. I’m keeping an eye on the daily trend-line and a close below 1.5800 should support the bears. Once the pair closes below the 1.4900 level, the pair should continue to gain momentum and a possible retest of 1.43 and 1.36 will be targeted. Perhaps we’ll continue to see more range-bound activity with increased volatility.

Short term support – 1.6300 to 1.5850

Short term resistance – 1.6500 to 1.6800

Alex Kazmarck of Trade Leader SpotEuro presents analysis of the JPY.

Fundamental:

Bank of Japan announced last week that it will continue to keep its benchmark interest rate steady at 0.10% and made no change to its monthly purchases of nearly 6 trillion yen. The USD/JPY weakened on the news as the BOJ continued to reiterate that it will continue to expand its monetary base until its inflation target of 2% is reached and stabilizes. Expectations that Japan will have a difficult time reaching its goal as early as 2015 is leading many to think that the yearly amount of 70 trillion yen will most likely be increased in 2014, especially if inflationary data continues to underperform. This week’s CPI and other key data from Japan will be very important in order for the yen to keep its downward momentum. Of course, expectations that the FOMC will begin tapering the QE policy are also aiding the dollar. Some anticipate the first announcement to come as early as December, but most anticipate a January meeting to lead to the first cut so that more economic data could be evaluated, especially on the employment front. These are key factors that will be moving this currency pair in the coming months.

I think it will be much more important to monitor the fundamentals than technicals as there remain risks in both Japan, US, and EU markets and any major disruption could cause the yen to act as a safe haven and lead to a reversal in favor of the yen.

Technical:

On November 8th, the USD/JPY saw a breakout of the wedge pattern that has been consolidating during the summer months. The combination of this technical breakout along with the aforementioned key fundamental factors has led to the perfect storm in JPY weakness. The key levels to watch if the pair continues to increase are the highs set over the past 7 months, with the 103.70 the key level before we can confirm the trend. Some other key levels to be aware of are 105.50, which is the 61.8% fib level from the 124 highs in 2007 to the lows of 75 in 2011. During that time, the yen strengthened due to the unwinding of the carry trade as global economies weakened and yield was more difficult to find given the risk involved. Above 105.50, traders should look to the 110 level before further consolidation occurs.

To the downside, which we only anticipate if equity markets begin to breakdown, a break below the supporting wedge trend line could lead to mid-80s in the cross.

Outlook:

While the current strength of the USD/JPY cannot be ignored, I’ll be looking for this week’s Japanese economic data to confirm the bullish potential. A break above 103.70 and 105.50 will act as key technical resistance levels and if this trend continues, a target of 110 could be insight during the first half of 2014.

As mentioned earlier, there remain risks that must be monitored. These risks are hidden in the low bond yields that are manipulated by central banks in order to push investments into riskier assets. While this could continue indefinitely, these types of actions have the potential to form bubbles. Market participants are aware that if the QE policies were not present, yields for risk free assets such as government bonds would be much higher, a key measure of market risk.  I think it’s prudent to put the latest breakout out of the wedge into context and be aware of these risks as volatility could increase very quickly and price action could return to what we saw in 2008.

In the first of many posts, Alex Kazmarck of Currensee Trade Leader SpotEuro presents his analysis of of the EUR/USD. Tune in tomorrow for John Forman's take on some of the same events.

Fundamental:

The last two weeks have been a disaster for the euro currency as economic data from Germany and France along with Italy, Spain, and Portugal continued to underperform expectations, culminating with the ECB lowering interest rates by .25%, a move that was not expected by most economists. These developments over the past ten days have led to the euro losing 3.2% of its value against its US counterpart. The 1.3825 high in the pair’s exchange rate may now be in place, unlikely to be revisited anytime soon. Although US economic data has been mixed, the recent surprise in GDP growth and better than expected payrolls data is pointing to a fundamental shift between the ECB and the Fed, with the latter looking to tighten its monetary policy (tapering of QE) sooner rather than later.  This shift will most likely lead to a continued correction for the euro in the coming months.

There remain many obstacles for both the euro area and the United States, both suffering from poor employment and deflationary pressures. As mentioned many times by the FOMC members, the Fed is targeting a jobless rate of 6.5% before it begins to increase interest rates. While that figure has been on the decline, the participation rate has fallen to lows not seen since 1978, making it difficult to see the impact QE has had on job creation. This creates a problem in forecasting what actions the FOMC will take in the coming months and is just one example that could easily reverse market direction.

Inflation and employment will most likely be difficult to gauge, so aside from recognizing their importance, we will look at price action for guidance.

Technical:

The EUR/USD found support just below 1.2800 during the latter part of 2012 and the first half of 2013, bouncing off the figure in late July and rallying 8% to set a new year high.  As we can see in the following chart, the pair retraced its first rally by 50% before continuing higher in September through the end of October. With the most recent price action being fundamental in nature, we are using this as a stepping stone to look for further downside. The weekly trend line was broken at 1.3450, which was previous support and will now act as resistance. The next level of support is now just above the 1.3150 level for the pair. While a retracement back above 1.3500 can’t be ruled out, I’m looking to sell on rallies and a break below 1.3100 should confirm the medium-term short bias. Further below is the important 1.2800 level that acted as support for 2012-2013. Should we break that figure, it will act as confirmation of a longer-term short bias and I’ll be looking for lower 1.20s as a target before looking for longer term consolidation.

Outlook:

Near term outlook is for a small correction to 1.3450/1.35 before a continued move lower to 1.3100 near the end of the week/month. There is a lack of economic data from Europe until Thursday at which time we’ll see preliminary GDP readings from France, Italy, and Germany, along with other data. Worse than expected figures will put downward pressure on the euro and support the loose monetary policy guidance shown by the ECB last week.

Back by popular demand! Currensee and SpotEuro have partnered up to provide real-time analysis and commentary during the release of this very important economic indicator. Don’t miss out on a great opportunity to learn how to trade this economic report and ask questions while the market is moving.

Tomorrow, Friday, October 8, 2010 8:00 AM - 9:30 AM EDT --> Sign up here.

What will be covered:

- EUR/USD will be emphasized
- Learn how to trade during news events
- See how technical analysis is applied to live market charts
- Support and Resistance levels will be determined before the release
- Ask questions while the market is moving

About SpotEuro:
SpotEuro Forex Trading Signals was established to help novice Forex traders trade successfully.  Throughout the first several years of trading, more than 90% of Forex traders fail. Many are not lucky to last that long and blow up their accounts within the first couple of months. Most failure is due to a lack of discipline.

About our presenter:
Alex Kazmarck brings 10 years of market analysis experience and will talk about the price action as it is occurring before, during, and after the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls data.

=====

Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results.

-------

Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

Back by popular demand!  Currensee and SpotEuro have partnered up to provide real-time analysis and commentary during the release of this very important economic indicator. Don’t miss out on a great opportunity to learn how to trade this economic report and ask questions while the market is moving! Webinar starts tomorrow at 8AM EST. Register here.

  • EUR/USD will be emphasized
  • Learn how to trade during news events.
  • See how technical analysis is applied to live market charts.
  • Support and Resistance levels will be determined before the release
  • Ask questions while the market is moving.

Register here.

About SpotEuro:
SpotEuro Forex Trading Signals was established to help novice Forex traders trade successfully.  Throughout the first several years of trading, more than 90% of Forex traders fail. Many are not lucky to last that long and blow up their accounts within the first couple of months. Most failure is due to a lack of discipline.

About our presenter:
Alex Kazmarck brings 10 years of market analysis experience and will talk about the price action as it is occurring before, during, and after the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls data.

=====

Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results.

-------

Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

Hi Pips - We apologize for the delay in getting this webinar live. We've had a couple of crazy weeks here at Currensee HQ in Boston. If you missed the webinar or want to watch it again we've got it for you below. Happy Trading!

=====

Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results.

-------

Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

I wish I could tell you which way the dollar was going to move this week, but I can tell you two things that are certain to happen on Friday:  the Fed will announce the April Non-Farm Payrolls number and Currensee will present a live trading webinar featuring trader Alex Kazmarck of SpotEuro.  The Fed drops the number at 8:30 Washington time and the webinar starts half an hour before at 8:00am sharp, US Eastern time.

As before, the webinar is free for Currensee members.  It's $9.95 for the general public, and readers of this here blog get $5 off at this special link.  We hope you can join us. Space is limited.

The consensus forecast as of this writing is for net gain of 197k jobs, the biggest gain in quite some time, but the consensus has been wide of the mark in the past.  The January number, announced in early February, was forecast for a gain of 10k, announced at a loss of 20k and later revised downward to a total loss of 26k jobs.  Last month the forecast called for a gain of 185k but only 162k materialized.  The Good Friday holiday and a UK bank holiday muted the market's reaction, but there are no such obstacles this month.

The EUR/USD has been on a downswing lately with the Greek kerfuffle and whatnot, and strength in the US employment picture traditionally points to weakness in the pair, but good news that's not good enough can have the same effect as bad news.  Join us Friday morning and watch a pro trader set up for the announcement and follow the trading action live.

======

Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results.

Once again, Currensee is teaming up with Alex Kazmarck from SpotEuro for a live trading webinar on the announcement of the March non-farm payrolls number tomorrow morning at 8am Eastern time. It's usually $10, but readers of this blog can enter the discount code "blog" for a 100% discount and attend free of charge.  We hope to see you there!

The analysts are predicting a big gain in jobs this month, so the session is sure to be interesting!

- EUR/USD will be emphasized
- Learn how to trade during news events.
- See how technical analysis is applied to live market charts.
- Support and Resistance levels will be determined before the release
- Ask questions while the market is moving.

About the Non-Farm Payrolls:
The change in the number of people employed in the USA excluding the farming industry is an important leading indicator of consumer spending which in turn drives overall economic activity. It is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on the first Friday of each month.  Positive news about employment is usually good for a currency.

Enter discount code "blog" for free admission:

Events


About SpotEuro:
SpotEuro Forex Trading Signals was established to help novice Forex traders trade successfully. Throughout the first several years of trading, more than 90% of Forex traders fail. Many are not lucky to last that long and blow up their accounts within the first couple of months. Most failure is due to a lack of discipline.

About our presenter:
Alex Kazmarck brings 10 years of market analysis experience and will talk about the price action as it is occurring before, during, and after the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls data.

======

Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results.

Are you making the most out of your trading? Have all the efforts that you have placed into learning about trading and about foreign exchange paying off? For many of us we have devoted countless time and energies spent on learning the intricacies of the currency markets, learning technical analysis and maybe even building our own custom indicators. If you have gone to that extent then your expectations should be for profitable trade.

In too many cases though traders are being too conservative when they close their trades, often times well before their initially targeted take-profit level. Do not worry if you are not fully capitalizing on your trades. You will not be the first as this happens to be a time-tested conundrum, as the saying goes 'most traders close their profitable trades too early and hold to their losing trades too long'.

The fact is that you love trading and especially trading foreign exchange. Foreign exchange offers opportunities that other markets do not. This includes being a highly liquid market that is open continuously 5 ½ days per week. Compare that to other markets that utilize exchanges and have their hours dictated to them. Because of those limited trading hours market-makers have to adjust prices 'according to market conditions' which therefore creates more gaps in prices than forex traders have ever seen.

If you feel that your trading could use a boost then why not seek it out. There are many easy ways to do this and people are eager to lend a hand as well. For example this Friday is when the US releases the Employment report for March. Currently the consensus expectations on Wall Street are for job creation to the tune of +187k jobs. This is quite a reversal of the last 2+ years in the US therefore you should expect quite a reaction. Currensee will be hosting a webinar with SpotEuro on how they would trade Friday's market. For more information please visit: http://nonfarm.eventbrite.com/. The cost is only $10.

That is not the only tier-I economic release this week as Japan's Tankan is out with the next quarter commencing. That means that it is also month-end and after a large run-up in stocks during this past month the question should be asked how will this impact risk-taking during the course of this week?

In the Marketplace section on Currensee there are multiple offerings for traders of various skill levels. The Marketplace is listed on the tab at the top of the page in the center. Among the categories listed are 'For Newbies', 'Coaching', 'Education' and many more listings where for a fair price you can receive professional assistance in improving your trade.

The key question here is it worth the money? The next time that you close a trade prematurely or let your trade run through its stop-loss level then you’ll wish that you had spent the money on coaching instead. If you are looking to give your trading a boost then seek some assistance. As they say there is no time better than the present. One look at the global economic calendar and it is obvious of the potential for trading profits this week and in the weeks ahead. Take your trading to the next level and maximize your opportunities.

This report is for your information only and does not constitute investment or business advice or an offer to buy or sell securities.

======

Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results.