Tag Archives: non-farm payroll

We were saddened to learn last week of the passing of Steve Jobs, Apple’s co-founder. His revolutionary vision and breakthrough products have tremendously impacted the technology industry. We wish the Jobs family and Apple all the best as we’ve lost a man who’s being hailed as this generation’s Albert Einstein. Here are some other headlines from the past week:

On a bright note, the U.S. economy added 103,000 jobs in September after a sluggish summer. With the unemployment rate remaining at 9.1 percent, the economy isn’t showing immediate worries of a new recession, according to the Oct. 7 Non-Farm Payroll. The Oct. 5 ADP Non-Farm Payroll, which isn’t tandem with the Non-Farm Payroll, showed a gain of 91,000 jobs in the private sector. That gain was higher than the 76,000 jobs experts forecast. Regardless, financial experts are still touting that today’s “recession” has topped The Great Depression of 1929 because of impacts from national debt, home prices and falling Gross Domestic Product. As many Americans worry about finances, some residents in the San Francisco Bay Area have innovated a solution: they’ve created their own community currency, aimed at keeping money squarely in their own municipality. The initiative began this past June as a way to promote awareness of supporting local merchants and small businesses. Across the country, the Occupy Wall Street movement has been expanding as activists continue to voice concerns about the economy. Amid the world economic crisis, it’s no surprise that alternative investment funds have edged out more traditional investment opportunities such as the stock market. Financial experts say alternative funds have demonstrated “their potential effectiveness in helping to build more robust, diversified portfolios.” We think so too.

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

As we said goodbye to summer this past Labor Day weekend, we took a break from anticipating the arrival of the New England fall foliage to check out the world currency market this past week. Here are our top headlines from the week:

Nonfarm payroll numbers were released Sept. 2, showing that, for the first time in 11 months, the economy failed to add new jobs in August. Market reactions to this news sent stocks declining, increasing fears of a recession while driving bonds, gold, and the Swiss franc higher. Considered one of the only remaining safe havens for investors, the Swiss franc continues its high demand. As a result, yields for short-term Swiss government debt turned negative Aug. 30 for the second time in a row, meaning that those who invested in these assets paid more for them than they will receive when they fall in three months. Recent numbers also show that gold, another safer investment, rose 12 percent in August. Meanwhile, a combination of the S&P downgrade and the European debt crisis led investors toward Treasuries and bonds, which grew 2.8 percent and 1.99 percent, respectively. In other news, Japan’s newly appointed prime minister Yoshihiko Noda (previously the finance minister) has signaled that a new approach will be taken to ease Japan’s economic issues due to the rising yen.

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

Back by popular demand! Currensee and SpotEuro have partnered up to provide real-time analysis and commentary during the release of this very important economic indicator. Don’t miss out on a great opportunity to learn how to trade this economic report and ask questions while the market is moving.

Tomorrow, Friday, October 8, 2010 8:00 AM - 9:30 AM EDT --> Sign up here.

What will be covered:

- EUR/USD will be emphasized
- Learn how to trade during news events
- See how technical analysis is applied to live market charts
- Support and Resistance levels will be determined before the release
- Ask questions while the market is moving

About SpotEuro:
SpotEuro Forex Trading Signals was established to help novice Forex traders trade successfully.  Throughout the first several years of trading, more than 90% of Forex traders fail. Many are not lucky to last that long and blow up their accounts within the first couple of months. Most failure is due to a lack of discipline.

About our presenter:
Alex Kazmarck brings 10 years of market analysis experience and will talk about the price action as it is occurring before, during, and after the release of the Non-Farm Payrolls data.

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results.

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

Hi Pips - We apologize for the delay in getting this webinar live. We've had a couple of crazy weeks here at Currensee HQ in Boston. If you missed the webinar or want to watch it again we've got it for you below. Happy Trading!

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results.

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

This past Monday a financial channel was discussing the currency markets. They were running a bearish story on the euro and highlighted how one particular fund manager was expecting EUR/USD to start heading towards parity. One manager alone doesn’t stand out in the largest market in the world, but the thrust of the report was focused on the challenges that the Euro Zone was going to face and had to be considered bearish.

On Tuesday, that same financial channel ran another story on the currency markets. This time they catered to the euro bulls, stating that most currency traders were expecting the US dollar to stem its gains and start to reverse course. Did this financial channel bother listening to their report on Monday? One of their reports has to be right, right?

This is no way to enter a trading day. Certainly markets will zigzag throughout a trading day, leading to counter-trend trades but understanding the underlying market trend should prove to be helpful as you enter each day. Conflicting information will often times lead to poor decision making.

Let’s return back to Tuesday morning: there was a story on the wires that the Confidence Board revised lowered their April economic reading for China. This is no small deal; in fact, didn’t China just come back from the G-20 meetings touting their strong growth strategies? The Shanghai Composite lost 4.3% on Tuesday and global equities all followed lower. It seems as if Tuesday had turned into thought-reversal day.

Wait though, because there was yet more to come on Tuesday. A meeting with the boss should be no big deal. A meeting with the boss who proclaims afterwards that things are OK is a worrying sign. Apparently President Obama receives a daily update from Ben Bernanke on the state of the US economy. But on Tuesday, after the meeting President Obama, found it necessary to state that things are OK in front of the microphones. Just making sure that we all heard him in case you missed the FOMC or G-20 meetings last week, where both individuals were telling us how good things are right now.

This also happened to be approximately 72 hours before the US NFP report is to be released. Expectations are still for a loss of 110k jobs. The last time the president spoke ahead of a NFP report, he stated how “strong” it would be and then we were all left with crumbs – the creation of forty one thousand private sector jobs to be precise. If I can read between the lines here, it seems as if the president received the jobs number on Tuesday (the BLS takes the surveys in the week of the 12th each month and tabulates the figures in the days that follow) and it was not good.

Americans do not agree that the US economy is OK right now. This was evident in the June Consumer Confidence reading that came out on Tuesday. The Present Index fell to a miserable 25.5 reading. Not good.

Nobody said that currency trading would be easy, especially when you hear flip-flopping information on economies of China and the US, not to mention that the financial channels delivering the news are anything but consistent as well. Understanding the underlying trend will help you become a more consistent currency trader. After all, we need someone to be consistent around here.

This report is for your information only and does not constitute investment or business advice or an offer to buy or sell securities.

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results.

1 Comment

SpotEuroThis Friday we're pleased as punch to be able to host professional trader Alex Kazmarck of SpotEuro for another live Forex trading webinar as the January Non-Farm Payrolls number is announced.  This key economic indicator has global implications on the exchange rate of the USD with any other currency.  We'll start at 8am ET and Alex will give some background info, and then at 8:30, when the number is announced, we'll watch as Alex trades live based on his strategy and experience.  We hope you can join us!

Friday, February 5, at 8:00am ET: Trading the Non-Farm Payrolls Data Live with Alex Kazmarck of SpotEuro

Currensee and SpotEuro have partnered up to provide real-time analysis and commentary during the release of this very important economic indicator. Don’t miss out on a great opportunity to learn how to trade this economic report and ask questions while the market is moving!

  • EUR/USD will be emphasized
  • Learn how to trade during news events.
  • See how technical analysis is applied to live market charts.
  • Support and Resistance levels will be determined before the release
  • Ask questions while the market is moving.

This session is free to attend although space is limited, and all registrants will get a special offer from SpotEuro.

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results.

1 Comment

After last months shock on this data which was wildly better than even the most optimistic estimations, once again this month’s number should command pivotal importance.  It’s worth noting what its impact was for the Dollar last time, as it initially weakened as it was seen Stock positive, before making a sweeping reversal as traders realised that this could bring forward interest rate hikes, and have impact on the carry trade.

Now we look ahead to what the impact of this month’s number could be. The ADP report on Wednesday showed that job losses were still occurring, albeit at a reduced pace that dated back to March 2008 when a similar rate occurred. However, this survey is often a poor short term indicator of the main report and normally only reflects the general trend. This can be due to many unknown factors but what is clear is the fact that ADP is the private sector and the main Non Farm includes government hiring and firing. One background point to note is the one off period of Government recruitment requirements will be to find people to conduct the 2010 census.

Currently the consensus for the report is a slight loss of 10,000 with a range of plus and minus 60,000. For me, whilst the immediate number will be of interest, more importantly, the surprise of last months number will mean I will watch very carefully for any revisions of previous results. This could well be the catalyst for the true reaction on the Dollar. It also sets up what often occurs in FX on this number in that the first reaction is the wrong one.

From a Technical perspective the Eurodollar finds itself caught between the weight of time created by the previous uptrend above 1.4515 that lasted from last September to Xmas, and the short term trend which has gone sideways and has support at 1.4222 . From a strategic point of view it requires closes beyond this range to dictate the next major trend.  The continued failure in the 1.4440 to 71 area this week, and the acceptance of lower value this year, means that the bias is that the break will be down and as a consequence I remain short. The downtrend should be swift as any break leaves good support distant at 1.3995 to 55, where a reaction will occur on the first visit.

On Currensee I will also be looking at the positioning of Traders coming into the report to gauge general sentiment and looking at the poll of who is bullish/bearish.

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results.

Well it didn’t take long for the first Monday in 2010 to kick off the week with a very strong slant towards risk-taking. Equities opened up strong, Commodities were flying and some higher-yielding currencies, such as Aussie, had strong performances as well. We saw this pattern quite often towards the end of 2009 where risk-taking would outperform on Monday before the remainder of the week would be chronicled by sideways or a risk-averse environment. Hopefully that is where the resemblance to 2009 ends right?

In many respects 2009 will be remembered for the global recession, the exceedingly accommodative monetary policy stances taken by the old industrialized leaders and the 4.1m jobs lost in the US. For those keeping track that is 1m more jobs lost than in 2008.

There is good news though and there have been plenty of opportunities to trade during this period of high volatility. We all know about the seismic shifts in the Dow Jones, Crude and currencies, such as the GBP, over the past year or two. Hopefully the worst of the economic crises is behind us but for no reason does that suggest that the moves in our securities are about to stop. If anything the opposite holds true.

For example, in Currensee if you go to the Economic Calendar and click over to this Friday, January 8th you’ll see that the markets are awaiting the December US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report. Early expectations are for a Zero reading, or essentially unchanged from the -11k reading in November. Now should we really expect the same reading in back to back months when the US has been losing 300k jobs on average for the past 23 months? I don’t think so.

Just an off-hand look at the last 7 or 8 years shows that there is a 100k or so difference between Nov. and Dec. readings thus expecting a minimal change in employment over the holidays might not be the way to be positioned. In forecasting the NFP figure I analyze the jobless claims and they have been improving quite significantly over the last 2 months. Thus I’ll be expecting a positive job figure for December, to the tune of over 100k, but regardless of what I think, with the markets expecting an Unchanged reading for December then the hurdle for volatility due to moves in interest rates, stocks and currencies should be very low.

Is this the only economic release where expectations may be set up for a surprise? Nope and if you move back to this Wednesday you’ll see that Australian retail sales came in at +0.3% m/m in the prior month and the October reading is also expecting a +0.3% m/m reading. The last few monthly readings in Australian Retail sales have been +0.3%, -0.2%, +0.7% & -0.9%. More of a zig-zag fashion that a trend. If you look back though you’ll notice that the expectations are expecting more of a trend at +0.4%, +0.5%, +0.6%, +0.6%...

Certainly those making the predictions and those trading off the actual numbers have different interests it seems. If you look at the Market Watch on Currensee you’ll notice that 85% of the trader volume in AUD/USD is Long. This is a currency that has gone from approximately form 0.60 to 0.90 over the past year thus one can be certain that a few economic surprises will have this currency on the move again.

Which way? Well here is to hoping for fresh trading moves in 2010 and an Not economic repeat of 2009.

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results.