Author Archives: David Karp

Trade Leader Or Kahana analyzes recent developments in the GBP/AUD

Last night (on 22-04-14) GBPAUD created a bullish pattern in the weekly CCI, a weekly Zero line reject (ZLR). I am not using the standard CCI but rather the Woodie's CCI. The blue CCI (turbo-6) reached to the zero line while the black CCI (50) was and still is in the 40 region, both in a V shape.

GBP/AUD weekly chart - click to enlarge

You can see all the recent ZLRs have led to strong gains in this pair, between hundreds to thousands of pips.

A weekly ZLR does not mean one can execute a long trade in GBPAUD immediately!

In the daily CCI there is still a potential for a bearish ZLR. Before entering the bullish uptrend, make sure this potential ZLR is invalidated!

I would analyze the hourly chart and search for a ZLR after the opening of the first green bar or the following green bars in order to perfect my entry.

GBP/AUD hourly chart - click to enlarge

There are a couple of things you must note before taking the trade. The first thing is the negative swap. Longing GBP/AUD incurs a relatively high negative interest so it may be wise to target 30-40 pips (depending on the hourly range) as intraday take profits and to continue buying on dips if intraday technical patterns are confirmed, 1hr, 4hr and/or Daily chart should be used. The second is not less important than the first. When looking at the monthly chart you will see that this pair already gained approximately 5,000 pips from the bottom. Bear this in mind! I won't expect hundreds to thousands of pips as seen in the latest ZLRs. Taking this ZLR I would expect a smaller movement of about tens to hundred pips.

According to the Motley Fool, "get a new/better job" is #4 of the top 10 new years resolutions. If that's on your list and you're in the Boston area, check out these career opportunities at Currensee towers:

Inside Sales Representatives: Entry-level gig: make calls, give demos, study for and pass your series 3 and 34, earn commissions.

Inside Sales Manager: Manage a winning team to even greater heights.

Compliance Officer: Use your legal chops and experience with NFA and CFTC to help us take the high road to success.

Manager of Trade Leader Recruitment and Oversight: Manage the Trade Leader application and due diligence process

If that's not enough, we're also looking for some paid (yes, paid) interns in the Engineering group:

Software Development Intern

Development Operations Intern

What's more, we continue to accept applications for the ultimate Forex job, Trade Leader. If you're a professional Forex trader with rock-solid risk management discipline and a winning record, you may want to consider applying. But first, read about the due diligence process.

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We're super excited to be hosting another Webinar, this time featuring Trade Leader Spencer Beezley along with Bill Schneider and Licheng Cai of Currensee.  It's this Sunday, September 22, at 7:00pm New York time (that's 4pm in California and 9am in Sydney)

Currensee's Trade Leader Spencer Beezley and Licheng Cai, Currensee Trade Leader Selection and Due Diligence Manager will discuss Spencer's common sense approach to Forex Trading and why he was selected and chose to join the Currensee Trade Leaders Investment Program. Currently Investors can follow two of Spencer's strategies, TCM and Harbor FX. Bill Schneider, Global Institutional Sales Manager will provide a quick overview of the Currensee Trade Leaders Investment Program.

What you’ll learn by joining us:

  • Insight into Forex trading from a professional money manager
  • How to manage risk
  • The four steps to building and managing a Forex Portfolio

Upon completion of the webinar, we hope we have aided you in deducing if Forex is right for you and key things you should consider before making an investment on your own or with Currensee.  We hope you can join us, please register now!

Currensee is hiring Business Development Representatives in our swanky North End office who will be responsible for selling the Currensee Trade Leaders Investment Program to new customers. The successful candidates will make calls with the goal of scheduling web-based product demonstrations that lead to new account openings. The preferred candidate will be a recent college graduate or have a 1 or 2 years of work experience with a track record of success. The candidate must have a fun and engaging personality, a competitive work ethic and be comfortable learning and adopting new technologies. The candidate must possess the desire to work and succeed in a sales operation in a startup environment.

This job is ideally suited for someone who is seeking a long-term career in sales or business development. This is a role that is well suited for someone who desires to work in a highly collaborative organization that provides growth potential and significant upside reward. At a minimum, the individual should possess a bachelor's degree.

Major Responsibilities:

  • Make phone calls every day and engage in conversations designed to discover opportunities
  • With training, research and identify prospective customer contacts, learn to inform customers of the value of our product
  • Consistently meet and exceed goals

Key Selection Criteria:

  • Bachelor’s degree
  • This position is based in downtown Boston, MA. Only local candidates need apply
  • Excellent communication skills – written and verbal - bilingual a real plus
  • Demonstrated ability to interact with people successfully, either in person or over the phone, to lead or persuade, overcome challenges, and organize activity
  • Disciplined approach to daily activity planning, setting goals and achieving success
  • Ability to take direction, be coached and mentored

Ideal Personal Profile:

  • Enthusiastic, disciplined and hard working individual
  • Excellent interpersonal skills
  • Enjoys working in a startup environment
  • Strong interpersonal, conflict resolution, persuasion and negotiating skills
  • Must be an excellent listener and be able to clearly discuss business value propositions with executive level contacts

Think you've got what it takes? Send cover letter, resume, and anything else we should know to hotjobs@currensee.com.

We’re excited to announce a new regular feature on the Currensee Blog, Spencer Beezley’s Forex Trading Chronicles. Spencer Beezley, the brains behind two Currensee Trade Leader strategies is going be blogging about his personal journey as a trader, providing insight along the way into money management, smart leverage, backtesting, and building and sticking to a trading plan. Spencer has been a Currensee Trade Leader for about two years and holds both Series 3 and Series 34 Licenses. He has been a fund manager and Forex trader since 2008 as well as a developer and programmer of trading systems. He is a self-described “strong believer in rules-based technical trading.”  Look for the first installment of his Forex Trading Chronicles soon, and feel free to check out Spencer’s strategies at Harbor FX and Trimmer Capital Management.

Currensee is pleased to welcome guest author Mario Singh for today's post.

One of the most popular technical indicators among forex traders is Bollinger Bands®. This technical analysis tool has proven to be quite reliable in determining overbought and oversold levels – and the visual cues are quite simple. If the price touches the upper Bollinger Band® then that’s a signal to sell, and when it touches the lower Bollinger Band® then you need to buy.

Bollinger Bands® have proven to be quite effective when applied to markets that are range-bound since prices will usually travel between the two bands – think of a ball that’s bouncing between opposing walls. But this tool is not always effective in giving accurate signals on when to buy or sell. To increase accuracy, many employ more specific bands within the Bollinger Bands®.

John Bollinger, the man who formulated the Bollinger Bands®, does acknowledge the limitations of his creation. He said that “tags” are just tags – they are not signals. Tagging the upper Bollinger Band® does not necessarily mean it is a sell signal. The same thing with a tag of the lower Bollinger Band® – it doesn’t necessarily mean it’s a buy signal. Price has a way of just walking the band – and this does happen. Traders who stubbornly sell  at the top tag and buy at the bottom tag are not trading wisely. What can happen is that they may just be faced with a series of stop-outs, or even worse, a deepening floating loss that they may not be able to recover from.

There is a sentiment that a better way to use Bollinger Bands® for forex trading is by using it to evaluate trends.

It is a commonly recognized observation that prices often range about 80 percent of the time since the forex market (or any other investment market, for that matter) usually consolidates as bullish and bearish movements battle each other for dominance. Trends in the market are not common, which is why it is so hard to use it as a trading indicator. If we look at price from this perspective then we can consider “trend” as a deviation from what is normal (which is the range).

At its very heart, Bollinger Bands® measure deviations. It is this quality of Bollinger Bands® that make it perfect for looking at trends. Making two sets of Bollinger Bands® – one earmarked for “1 standard deviation (SD)” and the other for the more common setting of “2 standard deviation” we can observe price in a totally different way.

By plotting a chart using this setting, we can see that when the price channels between the +1 SD and +2 SD away from mean of the upper Bollinger Bands® then the trend is up and that channel can be classified as a buy zone. On the other hand, when the price channels between the -1 SD and -2 SD of the Bollinger Bands®, then that channel is a sell zone.  If the price stays within the +1SD and -1SD bands then it is considered neutral.

Bollinger Bands® can adapt to the expansion and contraction of price as volatility waxes and wanes, which is one of its best features.  This means the bands will compensate and would widen or contract alongside the movement of currency value. This creates what many consider as a precise trending pocket.

It is now up to the trader how to precisely employ Bollinger Bands® in their trading analysis and strategy. Some traders may use its most obvious properties – buying when the long position is hit and selling when the short position is reached. Other traders may use Bollinger Bands® to take advantage of trend exhaustion by picking when the price turns. It should be noted, however, that counter-trend trading will demand a far larger margin of error because trends have a tendency to attempt continuation of the present movement before they relent.

Bollinger Bands® are popular among traders as one of the most effective technical analysis tools but by extending its usage to plot trends it acquires more value and gives traders more reasons to try and master it.

About The Author

Mario Singh talks about various technical analysis tools and forex news trading at his website Askmariosingh.com.

In another contrarian move, yesterday Warren Buffett joined a social network of a few hundred million members and followed exactly none of them. As of this writing @warrenbuffet has almost 200,000 followers and two tweets. Does this finally legitimize Twitter in the financial world? I'm thinking that happened a while ago. Does it mean we can all get pearls of Warren's wisdom on our smartphones day and night? It's early yet, but I'm going to channel the magic 8-ball and say, outlook not so good.

In other financial twitter news, do you remember the little flash crash (twash crash? flash twash?) we got last week when somebody hacked the AP's Twitter account? Things snapped back pretty fast but it's a good reminder that trading on tweeted news is still not a fully-baked investment strategy. I'd keep that one in mind when scanning Twitter for trading tips, even from Warren Buffett.

 

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Here at Currensee towers, we talk about alternative investing a lot: we talk about how good alternative investments are uncorrelated with traditional investments, we talk about how spot Forex is an alternative investment, and we love to talk about how a diversified portfolio of Currensee Trade Leaders can be an alternative investment.

Recently, there's been some discussion in the media about investing in art, specifically contemporary art. (If you're not up to speed, "contemporary" art mean art by living artists, or at least artists recently living.) It seem on the face of it, you can't get much more alternative than art.  Let's take a closer look.

First off, there's a difference between buying art for an investment and investing in art. Investing in foreign currency doesn't usually mean having stacks of euros and yen stashed around your house any more than investing in gold or pork bellies means having those things in your house. It turns out that there are funds that buy and sell the art so you don't have to. You miss out on the "dividends" of enjoying the works of art and impressing visitors, but you also get a fund manager making the choices for you and diversifying the portfolio or collection of art, most likely more than you could do on your own.  But the problems of actual art ownership still fall to the fund, as Forbes puts it,

... the real problem with art funds is this: While holding art doesn’t produce annual returns, art funds incur considerable annual expenses, including storage, maintenance, insurance and transaction costs...

As you might expect, people who want to enjoy the art are not always the same people who want to enjoy the investment results of art. More from the same Forbes piece:

Of the 2,000 affluent individuals that Barclays surveyed globally for a June report, “Wealth Insights: Profit or Pleasure?, ” only 10% said they bought fine art purely as an investment. “ Most are buying for their own enjoyment or for cultural or social reasons,” concludes Davies.

Some would call art an alternative investment because it's relatively illiquid, even in an investment fund format, fine art works are thinly traded.  Are they uncorrelated to the broader markets?  That's harder to say, since many wealthy art buyers are probably getting their disposable art-buying income from the profits of their investments in stocks, bonds, businesses, and real estate.  Ask any art dealer what happens to their business when the stock market tanks, and I think you'll have your answer.

Both Reuters and the New York Times posit that the new super-rich, tech entrepreneurs, are not buying art like prior generations did. The Times says it's because they feel excluded from the art world,

And considering their net worths, technology innovators and the venture capitalists who back them are not collecting much art, according to people in both the tech and art worlds.

The Wall Street Journal suggests that wealthy techies are more likely to buy into art that's digital or conceptual, because it speaks to their areas of expertise more than conventional media.

Reuters comes back and says that tech company investing is just as insular if not more so:

...start-up culture is in fact one of the very few areas which is less transparent than the art world. You need to be invited to a tech party; gallery openings, by contrast, you just turn up to. If you want to buy the work of a certain artist, then with a little bit of diligence and persistence you can probably manage to do so somehow. And it’s downright easy to phone up the gallery and at least find out how much that artist’s works cost. If you want to invest in a certain start-up, by contrast, doing so is pretty much impossible unless you know the right people. And valuations aren’t kept quiet so much as they’re kept absolutely secret.

Venture Capital and Private Equity certainly qualify as alternative investments, so it seems that fine art might also fill the bill.  As we noted here last month, wealthy investors are often attracted to mysterious investments with uncertain contents and fancy managers, so it seems not so far-fetched they might buy into a fund of contemporary art they don't understand either.

There's room in a good portfolio for almost anything if it's allocated responsibly with regard to your other investments and personal financial goals. Is art an alternative investment for you? We're thinking probably not, unless you know a lot about it or have a fund manager or financial adviser who does. Or unless you really just want to look at it on the wall.

Good news, social media people! The Securities and Exchange Commission has declared that social media are widely used and available, and therefore suitable venues for releasing official corporate information.  Over at the New York Times DealBook blog, Michael De La Merced notes that the SEC has reversed direction on their intepretation of the Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) rule.  That rule says that public companies must make important information available to all investors at the same time, so none have any advantage in acting on the news.  The SEC now recognizes that a disclosure via social media meets this test - as long as investors have been notified that such information may be found in those channels.

Sounds like a great way to get a ton of twitter followers, just tell your shareholders that you'll be releasing earnings numbers via your twitter account.  Props to the SEC for recognizing what's really already happening, and also for ruling in the spirit of the rule.  This can only lead to greater transparency of corporate information, and that's always good for investors.

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I'm a sucker for a good venn diagram, so when I saw one on the New York Times Bucks blog featuring the intersection of "Rich Smart People" "Super Secret Formulas" and "Costs You a Lot of Money" I had to learn more.  What's in the intersection of Carl Richards diagram? Hedge Funds, that's what.  The post's title? "The Appeal of Investments That Cost More and Return Less"

I'm not here to dump on hedge funds - I'm sure there are plenty of folks out there who can do that - but what is this weird attraction to opacity?  Why do some people like alternative investments with mystery ingredients?  Do these people also buy food without reading the ingredients? Nobody likes mystery ingredients in food, right?

Richards thinks it's a persistent bit of "(bogus) investing folklore" that "the more complicated and secretive and exclusive it is, the better." Sure, if the secret to great returns at low risk wasn't a secret, everybody could enjoy them, and that's clearly not the case.  The folklore persists, but just because you can't do it - maybe you don't have the time to run models and keep up with markets and manage trades - that doesn't mean you don't have a right to know about how it works and what's in it.

You know Currensee is all about transparency, so here's our advice to smart rich people, and it also goes for anybody with money to invest: ask to see what's inside and how it works; if they won't tell you, be very very careful.  Investors in stocks hold the boards and executives accountable and demand annual reports and audited financials, so should people who hold alternative investments and managed funds.