Archive for June, 2012
Posted by Charlie Fell in Forex, Global Economy, Market Analysis, tags: BRIC, Currency, currency trading, emerging markets, fiscal, Forex, Global Economy, investing, monetary policy, notes, risk, yield
The global economy began to stabilize following the most severe downturn since the 1930s during the summer of 2009. The recovery that subsequently materialized outpaced the previous post-1945 recessions of 1975, 1982, and 1991, as relatively lackluster growth in real income-per-capita in developed economies was more than offset by a robust rebound in economic activity across the emerging world.
Three years on, the world’s largest advanced economies continue to struggle, and require ultra-accommodative monetary policies simply to prevent the already sizable output gap from widening further. Despite the ongoing life support, recent data indicates that activity across virtually the entire developed world has down-shifted close to ‘stall speed.’
Equally troubling, if not more so, is the observation that unlike previous ‘growth scares,’ the emerging world’s primary growth engines have struck a ‘speed bump,’ with a pronounced slowdown in economic activity evident in Brazil, China, and India. All told, roughly two-thirds of the global economy is slowing, stagnating, or contracting.
Against this disquieting background, it is hardly a surprise that the voracious appetite for risk assets apparent earlier in the year, has all but disappeared. Indeed, investors’ increasing emphasis on wealth preservation over capital gains has seen global equity indices slip into negative territory year-on-year, and lose virtually the entire advance in prices recorded during the first quarter of the current calendar year.
Few risk assets have escaped investors’ desire for safety, and the unsettling global outlook has precipitated a particularly pronounced decline in commodity prices. The Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB Commodity Index has plunged more than 15 per cent since late-February, and is more than 20 per cent below the highs registered last summer.
More trouble could well be in store for risk assets, as investors’ ‘dash from trash’ has pushed yields on both short- and long-term debt securities across ‘safe haven’ sovereign bond markets to levels that are simply not consistent with economic expansion. Indeed, the message emanating from government debt markets that include Canada, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, the U.K., and the U.S., is one of mounting financial stress and economic turbulence.
Increased investor concern has pushed rates on short-term sovereign notes deemed default-free to near-zero, while the scramble for ‘safe’ assets has seen the yields available on long-term government bonds plunge to historic lows of well below two per cent.
The yield on ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds for example, dropped to below 1.5 per cent in early-June, while ten-year German Bund yields fell below 1.2 per cent. Meanwhile, the yield offered on U.K. gilts declined to levels never seen before in a data-set that extends back to the first issue of British government debt in 1694.
What has sparked the recent panic and the purchase of ‘safe haven’ sovereign debt at prices that would appear to promise zero real returns, at best, on both short and long maturities? The seemingly irrational dash for safety can be partially explained by the fact that the current economic slowdown is detectable almost everywhere and virtually assures a ‘growth’ recession or below-trend growth – if not worse – during the second half of this year and beyond.
The U.S. is currently experiencing the weakest economic recovery in the post-1945 era, with growth averaging just 2.4 per cent over the last eleven quarters, as compared with 4.8 and 5.5 per cent respectively over a comparable length of time following the deep recessions of 1975 and 1982. Economic growth is running at less than half the pace that is typical for this stage in the cycle, and slowed to below two per cent in the first three months of the year.
The slump in payroll additions to a miserable 73,000 per month average in April and May, alongside weaker capital expenditures and government outlays, suggests that further deceleration took place in the second quarter. More troubling however, is the fact that tax cuts and spending increases amounting to roughly four per cent of GDP are set to expire simultaneously at the end of 2012, and the uncertainty surrounding the ‘fiscal cliff’ is hurting growth.
Much has already been written on the euro-zone, where the economic performance since the ‘great recession’ struck trails the Japanese experience following the deflation of its twin property and stock market bubbles more than two decades ago. The periphery is mired in recession, and recent data confirm that the loss of confidence and the resulting adverse impact on economic activity has spread to the core, including Germany. It is safe to conclude that the euro-zone will not provide a boost to global economic growth anytime soon.
Meanwhile, the malaise apparent in advanced economies has been accompanied by a growth slowdown in Brazil, China, and India. The Brazilian economy slowed to a virtual standstill during the first quarter, and the pace of expansion in China dipped to the slowest rate in almost three years over the same period, while India’s quarterly growth performance deteriorated to its worst level in seven years. A return to above-trend growth may not arrive as soon as optimists believe given over-investment in China, a tapped-out consumer in Brazil, and a disturbing fiscal deficit in India.
Investors have dashed to safety, as data confirmed weakness in economic activity virtually everywhere. Investors must appreciate that fiscal and monetary policymakers are short of tools with which to combat the latest weakness. Caution is warranted.
www.charliefell.com
Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.
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Key Man insurance. Morbid, but quite necessary; especially when it comes to hedge funds.
In a press release published Monday by risk management and insurance advisory firm SKCG, an arising issue in the hedge fund industry was confronted: Over $600 billion of assets are currently allocated into hedge funds whose managers will cross the 60+ line within the next decade. Basically, though they may seem immortal, illustrious hedge fund managers are still in fact perishable.
David Parker, President of the employee benefits division at White Plains, NY SKCG explains how the uniqueness of hedge fund products can be seen in that the positive returns generated are usually a result of its manager’s intelligence and skill. In the event of this ‘key man’ passing away, a disorderly company dissolution is often just a few steps behind.
The biggest factor in the recent surge of key man insurance popularity is the appeal it has to investors. While conducting their due diligence, an investor seeing that a hedge fund manager has insurance of this kind will inevitably work in the managers favor. If something does happen to them, the investor will be left to deal with an unmanaged fund and all the complexities that accompany it. Things like unwinding illiquid investments while maintaining needed cash flows are all realities that need to be considered, and key man insurance can come in clutch in this situation.
A recent report by KPGM and the Alternative investment Management Association entitled The Evolution of an Industry, demonstrates how the hedge fund sphere is experiencing an increase in demand from institutional investors calling for more transparency. After conducting 150 interviews with hedge fund management firms world wide, the report gathered that over half of their AUM come from institutional investors. The report also states that the amount of time managers spend handling due diligence questions from institutional investors has doubled since 2008.
With this strong of an influx in institutional investor allocations, complying with their demands would definitely be in a hedge fund manager’s best interest. So having one more requirement that they’re able to check off an investor’s due-dil list could mean the difference between getting a new sizeable allocation and not.
------- Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.
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Yesterday, Currensee officially announced Jonathan Jesse as Vice President of Engineering. With over 15 years of software development, engineering, and technology experience, Jesse will undoubtedly be an integral asset to Currensee’s team of technologists.
With a rapidly growing financial technology company, comes the inherent need to build a strong group of seasoned software engineers to support that growth. This is something that Currensee has been successful at from the beginning, which is demonstrated in the emphasis put on the size and talent of the current engineering force.
Few Currensee employees know the back-end of the company as well as Director of Software Development, Emanuel Kdziela. Having been with Currensee from its start, Emanuel knows the Forex collaboration platform inside and out. It’s always interesting to learn why people love to do the jobs they’re doing, and with Emanuel’s near four-year tenure with Currensee, something must be keeping him coming back each day.
“It’s a company with a lot of promise, clearly on its way to success and presents interesting challenges,” says Emanuel. “I also like the people I work with and enjoy our culture.”
Culture is definitely what sets Currensee apart from the Boston financial crowed, and likely what has kept us progressing throughout the years. The Currensee “Pips”, our 30+ person team, are truly the ones who make being here everyday an absolute pleasure. This group of innovative and hard working professionals comprised of engineers, sales people, product developers, marketers, and many more, have all contributed to building Currensee into what it is today.
Recently, we have been quite fortunate in our ability to further expand upon our team of technologists as a means of improving our product and continuing to foster its growth and development. As an already engineer-heavy company, more brains can only add to the innovation, right?
“The tech team here at Currensee is great because it is made up of top notch, smart, hard working engineers,” says Emanuel.
As demand for portfolio diversification with alternative investments increases, the Forex industry has seen an overall surge in investor interest. As a pioneer on the front of bringing both retail and institutional investors professional Forex money managers through advanced autotrading software, Currensee has been undergoing a bit of a growth spurt itself.
But, as with all great things, there’s still a splash of reality to be mindful of. Working at a company that’s redefining an industry while carving out a new technology and investing concept isn’t always all glamour.
“It definitely has its challenges and difficulties, but that just makes success that much more meaningful and rewarding,” says Emanuel.
That’s the beauty of Currensee, though. If you want to be challenged in your career and grow as a professional, working at a young – but not too young – FinTech firm is where you need to be.
------- Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.
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High frequency trading (HFT) has gotten a lot of press over the last several years. The so-called “Flash Crash” of May 2010 highlighted the impact HFT can have on the markets, though the focus has mainly been on the stock market. No real surprise there. The average person on the street still thinks of stocks first when the subject of trading comes up. That’s not the only place HFT’s influence is being seen, though, as a recent newswire piece indicates.
Here’s the first part of the Dow Jones story (which can be read on the Wall Street Journal site here):
Electronic inter-dealer currencies-trading platform EBS plans to scrap the fifth decimal place on its currency quotes and introduce so-called half-pip pricing ahead of major changes to the system, people familiar with the matter told Dow Jones Newswires Tuesday.
EBS, owned by ICAP PLC (IAP.LN), has been considering a range of options that will change the way investors are allowed to trade on the system in a bid to repair relations with its core banking customer base. EBS shares a dominant position in currency markets with Thomson Reuters (TRI), but it has come under fire from its core bank clients for allowing trading behavior that seemingly favors so-called high-frequency traders in recent years. Now it is seeking to redress that balance.
This article caught my attention because I recently reviewed a book titled Broken Markets on the subject of market structural changes and how HFTs have been able to exploit them. One of those changes is the move to decimalization made by the stock exchanges in the US in 2000. That helped narrow bid/ask spreads, which lowered trading costs. According to the book’s authors, though, it also created a lot more price points for trades to take place, leading to thinner liquidity at any given point, which is something noted in the Dow Jones story from the forex perspective. It also created greater opportunity for HFTs to come in and do their thing (some of which is highly predatory). The introduction of pipettes (fractions of pips) in forex has served the same purpose.
The move by EBS, as motivated by their customers (mainly the major banks – see The Dominant Players in Forex), is to pull that back a bit. The banks are feeling the pressure in their dealing margins, which have already been squeezed considerably. Back when I started in this business the bid/ask spread on USD/JPY was consistently 10 pips and up. It’s more like 2-3 pips these days most of the time, which means the banks who are acting as market makers are making much less profit per trade. This spread compression, combined with rapid technological development, has been a big factor in the shrinking of the global foreign exchange business. You can understand why the banks wouldn’t want to see those spreads narrowed further, especially if HFTs are grabbing a rising share of the volume.
If EBS makes the move to limit pipettes to only half pips, as proposed, that could have an impact on retail forex broker pricing. Exchange rates cascade down from the inter-bank market to the retail one, so any development at the top end where EBS operates is likely to filter its way to broker platforms. Not that it’s likely to have a major impact on most individual traders’ strategies.
The other thing EBS is looking to cut down on is the kind of quote stuffing that can lead to illusory liquidity. This quote stuffing happens when an HFT submits quotes/orders to the market really only to identify liquidity and feel out price direction. A high percentage of these orders are quickly cancelled. EBS wants to crack down on this, which could have an impact on price action. That may end up being the bigger thing to keep an eye one moving forward. If it tends to smooth out prices we could find forex becoming that much more interesting for that money flowing out of the stock market.
------- Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.
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Posted by Michelle Heath in Currency Culture, Currensee, Currensee Marketplace, Features, Forex, Forex Social Network, Forex Trader Network, On the Forex Front, tags: alternative investing, Alternative Latin Investor, currency tradin, diversification, Foreign Exchange, Forex, Forex traders, investing, Latin America, liquidity, transparency
This month, we were very excited to learn that Currensee would be featured in the magazine Alternative Latin Investor. This bimonthly publication covers the alternative investing industry in the Latin American region. The Latin American (LatAm) markets are among the fastest growing areas for the industry globally.
What was most interesting about the piece was the perspective put on Currensee, as it was being observed through the eyes of the LatAm investment industry.
Titled “Currensee: The Next Step in Forex Trading,” the article began by explaining a few aspects of foreign currency trading that are alluring to the LatAm investing industry. Characteristics like the massive size and liquidity of the world currency market, the speed and flexibility in which transactions can be executed, and being aware of the potential to generate returns during times of volatility are all attracting LatAm investors to Forex.
The ALI’s article discusses two aspects of this program have been particularly appealing to LatAm investors: transparency and diversification.
Because Currensee began as a social network for Forex traders to collaborate, communication has always been an integral component of how Currensee operates. Though today the focus has shifted more towards the Trade Leaders program, communication is still there and it equates to a high level of transparency.
“What’s unique is that our customers can give one another permission to view their actual trading activity and performance… There’s a level of transparency beyond any alternative investment I know of,” says Currensee CEO Dave Lemont.
LatAm investors are also drawn to the program’s ability to achieve “double diversification.” What this means is that as an investor in the Trade Leaders Investment Program, investors benefit from asset class diversification in the Forex market as well as diversification in their individual accounts by choosing from a variety of Trade Leaders. This new method of diversifying is an exciting development for the world of investing.
The article drives home the points around diversification for all investors and the proof is in the numbers – the fact that from 2000-2010, the S&P 500 has dropped a cumulative 3.7%. That means if you’re one of the many who had been adhering strictly to the general 60% stocks/40% bonds rule of thumb, you ultimately lost out.
Lemont says: “The stock market is manipulated by big players and algorithmic traders on a daily basis. The foreign currency market is so much bigger: US$4 trillion a day, with 24-hour trading. We’re not going to get together and move the euro today. But we could get together and move the price of a small-cap stock.”
So although collaborating and trying to move the euro is not likely something investors can achieve, keeping a diversified portfolio is. Keep cool and keep it diversified.
------- Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.
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Posted by John Forman in Pips Weigh In, tags: ben bernanke, bonds, Fed, fomc, Operation Twist, QE3, quantitative easing, Societe Generale, USD/JPY, volatility
In the end Wednesday, the markets got just about what was expected from the FOMC and Fed boss Ben Bernanke. While a certain notable French bank who shall remain nameless (OK, it was Société Générale) came out with 70% odds of a $600bln round of new quantitative easing (aka QE3), that was an outlier view. Most folks in the fixed income and forex markets (we don’t pay much attention to the stock guys :) ) were looking for a continuation of the Operation Twist program in which the Fed sells short-term treasuries it owns and buys longer-term ones.
These expectations are why in the end the various global markets basically just continued on the course they had already begun earlier in the day, albeit with a little volatility after the FOMC statement and into Bernanke’s press conference. Following the extension of Twist, the Fed chief’s comments about standing ready to do whatever may become necessary were predictable. He’s been saying that for some time now. Why not? It’s true. It’s always true. The Fed will do what it thinks it needs to do when it thinks it needs to do it. Folks seem to read QE3 expectations into that every time he says it, though.
To that end, it occurred to me yesterday that the folks who keep calling for QE at the next FOMC meeting are kind of like the folks who set dates for the end of the world, then when it doesn’t happen they revise to a future date.
The thing that had me sure there was no QE3 coming this week was a comment Bernanke made a little while ago that he was seeing no signs of deflationary risks at present. Deflation risk was a big factor in the justification for QE in prior rounds, so if he’s not seeing that risk now, the odds of QE3 drop despite economic developments. Now, the Fed forecasts released yesterday did feature lower inflation expectations, but nothing leaning toward deflation. That will be something to watch morning forward.
At this stage, the bigger issue at hand is going to be the value of the signals coming from the Treasury market. As I wrote a couple weeks ago, the Fed already owns a large portion of outstanding long-term Treasury paper. The extension of Twist is only going to make that share grow. The bond market guys I work with say basically the Fed will be buying all of the long-dated paper the Treasury issues for the rest of the year. This is going to further shrink the “float” of long-dated securities, which could make the likes of US 10yr yields even more volatile because it will take increasingly smaller volume to move them around.
Considering how correlated USD/JPY tends to be to those rates, the higher volatility in yields could make for some interesting action in that exchange rate. Notice in the chart below how much time the correlation between the two markets is positive and how even when it turns negative it is just briefly and only marginally so. If the 10yr yield becomes less valuable as an indicator due to the Fed’s dominant holdings, we could see the relationship between it and USD/JPY breakdown.

Also, things could get interesting on the short end of the yield curve as well.
The Fed normally holds a lot of short-dated Treasury paper which it uses in open market operations to keep short-term yields in line with policy. The Twist operation has already seen a lot of that paper sold as the Fed has bought long-dated securities. The expectation in the bond market is that the Twist extension will result in the Fed not having any shorter-term paper left. That could create some interesting dynamics at the front end of the yield curve. Considering how important overnight interest rates are to currency exchanges rates, there is the prospect of some periods of unusual activity in the months ahead. As a result, it will be worth keeping track of what the Fed is doing.
This is one of those times when understanding structural elements of the markets can be important.
------- Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.
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Posted by Michelle Heath in Forex, tags: Automated Forex Trading, blogging, china, Chinese food scandal, Chinese government, Foreign Exchange, investing, mercury, Social Media, stock, twitter, Weibo, Yili Industrial Group Co., Yuan
Earlier this week, Sina Corp., the company who provides the Chinese social media service called Weibo, saw a 3.8 percent rise in stock prices. Bloomberg reported that Weibo, a micro blogging platform comparable to that of Twitter, is now offering a premium service for users who are willing to pay a fee of 10 yuan per month. The hope is that they will be able to offer services users will actually really want to use in order for them to oblige to paying a fee.
Recently, Weibo has been appearing in the news due to the role it played in the June 14 Chinese food scandal. It was on this day that Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co. announced a recall of infant formula that was found to contain mercury. A Wall Street Journal article reports that searches pertaining to the incident were blocked from the social media site. It’s believed that censorship of this sort is done in an effort to control the spread of news on food safety, something that could threaten the stability of that Chinese economic sector.
With the growth of China’s economy currently in question, it makes sense that the Chinese government would want to preserve their strongest industries. Right now, with last years sales reported at $28 billion, one of those industries is dairy. Directly preceding the release of this information, Yili’s shares dropped 10 percent, which is the maximum fall allowed in one session.
This issue gives new perspective to the Chinese internet censorship issue. It is often projected in a negative light, attaching to it a stigmatism of the Chinese government encroaching on the population’s freedom of speech and freedom of access to information. But in situations like this, where negative news spread via social media could potentially wreak serious havoc on an industry integral to economic stability, should regulation be enforced? Also, what about people who might not have otherwise heard about the recall and continued to consume tainted food?
With the sharp rise in popularity of social media services, there very well might be an increasing need for new forms of regulation.
------- Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.
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Posted by Michelle Heath in Global Economy, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, tags: Argentina, Brazil, Cristina Fernandez, emerging markets, ETF, Foreign Exchange, Forex, investing, investor, market index, MSCI, NASDAQ, natural resources, risk management, shale gas, South America, stocks, volatility, YPF
Based on its strong natural resources, Argentina should, in theory, be a gold mine for investors. With arguably the third-largest shale gas reserves in the world, the Argentinean economy is only one close step behind Brazil for the top spot in South America.
So why did today an analyst quote in a NASDAQ article that on a one to 10 rating for investors, 10 being the riskiest, he would give Argentina a nine? This statement addresses one of the biggest problems with investing in an emerging market: its governance.
Argentinean president Cristina Fernandez has enacted policies that have made foreign investing in this country an uncomfortably volatile thing. Dissonance amongst varying economic growth predictions has raised suspicion of a government that could very well be laced with corruption and in potential need of reform.
In fact, it could also be possible that the Argentinean government is evading Western investment altogether, seen in their nationalization of YPF (Treasury Petroleum Fields). This move sent the only Argentina ETF down over 20 percent since mid-April (NASDAQ) and demonstrated government hostility to the free market principals.
MSCI, an investment tool and index firm, is considering the removal of Argentina from its Frontier Markets index due to the government’s aversions. What’s further unsettling is that due to their richness in mineral resources, the country hosts a few popular stocks, such as Pan American Silver and Yamana Gold. With their removal from this MSCI index, further pressure could be placed on these stocks, as well as their ETF.
Their tempting potential continues to make emerging markets alluring to investors. Its unfortunate that this potential is often overshadowed by less than stable governance, making increasing the chance of risk for investors over that of return. Do these factors make investing in emerging markets more speculation than investment?
------- Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.
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Posted by Michelle Heath in Forex, Global Economy, Industry Highlights, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, tags: Asia, bail-out, china, debt crisis, Euro, European economy, Foreign Exchange, Forex, greece, Greek, Hong Kong, investing, Japan, market, NIKKEI, stocks, trading, Warren Buffett
Despite yesterday’s surge in investor confidence that provided Asian markets a boost, things appeared to have fallen a bit flat this morning. As reality set in that Spain’s bond yields have hit record-breaking highs and Greece’s electoral success might not be enough to negate prior monetary upset, investor’s optimism wasted no time in fizzling out.
Bloomberg reported early this morning a slip of 0.8 percent in Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average, 0.1 in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, and 0.7 in China’s Shanghai Composite Index. Tim Riordan of Australian hedge fund Parker Asset Management Ltd., elucidated how he sees European problems increasing, as opposed to reaching a resolution. With bond yields hitting 7.29 percent, Spain is becoming somewhat of the elephant in the room. Riordan states that this is could really be a red flag indicating a downward spiral should be reason for caution.
Borrowing costs of this caliber can be indicative of a country potentially in need of a bailout in the near future. Despite the notion of this possibility, European markets were able to rise Tuesday. Currently, the strongest fear amongst investors seems to be a contagion of Spain’s monetary battles over to Italy, who’s facing issues of its own.
A few weeks back I happened upon a very economically fitting Warren Buffett quote assuring American’s they needn’t fear a recession relapse lest things in Europe get out of control and leech into the US economy. If investors’ uneasiness over debt spilling across Europe is foreshadowing for imminent future fiscal events, will Buffett’s words prove true?
------- Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.
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Posted by Michelle Heath in Global Economy, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, tags: bail-out, drachma, elections, Euro, greece, Greek, investing, market, New Democracy party, NIKKEI, spain, The New York Times, troika
The events of this past weekend were pretty monumental for the world currency industry (and the world in general). Up until Greece’s Sunday elections, animosity regarding the stability of the euro in the event of a Greek exit had been running rampant amongst investors.
Now, with the results finally established, they were able to enjoy a brief moment of revelry in the electoral success of the pro-bailout New Democracy party.
An Article in The New York Times provides a good outline of what potentially could have happened to the euro had the leftist Syriza party won. Vowing to repudiate the country’s bailout agreement with the “troika” of the European Union, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund, this move would have siphoned financing of Greek banks. In turn, this would have rendered them unable to continue operating and eventually drop the euro and revert back to the drachma.
But alas, this was not the case, and so being within hours of the election, investors applauded the win by reorienting the falling euro in a much-needed upward direction. Unfortunately, the vivacity didn’t carry into Monday market action. The euro fell flat once again as concerns regarding Spain’s astronomic bond yields crept back into investor’s psyches. With interest rates having breeched the 7 percent mark, these loans are being viewed as unsustainable.
But amongst the angst, some positivity prevails arriving in the form of Asian market success. Emerging Asian currencies gained as a result of investor’s newfound comfort in the pro-bailout results, enthusing them to add a few riskier assets. Overall, Asian markets experienced widespread lifts with the Japanese Nikkei index prevailing with a rise of almost 2 percent.
------- Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.
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