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Our Two Cents – Week of 4/9/12

Spring has teed off as golfer Bubba Watson won his first green jacket at the 2012 Masters Tournament and the Easter Bunny delivered chocolates this past weekend. While we enjoyed some time with family and friends, we kept up with the latest news in the currency markets.

In the U.S., jobless claims in March tallied 357,000 as the unemployment rate dipped to 8.2 percent from 8.3 percent. While last month’s figures were less than anticipated, they still illustrated optimism of a rebounding economy. Economists said the U.S. economy, which is in its third year of expansion, is better equipped to overcome a slowdown in Europe and inflating fuel costs. Also, the private sector in March added 209,000 jobs, which aligned with expectations.

In the eurozone, Greece saw good news for its economy as the country’s prime minister said the nation could see a 2.5-to-3-percent growth during the next two years. Lucas Papademos said current forecasts show that Greece’s gross domestic product will start rebounding from five straight years of recession in the second half of 2013. The country also extended its deadline to April 20 for its final bond swap.

In Ireland, the Irish Central Bank showed signs of economic stability. Officials said the bank remains on track to meet its budget bailout targets and unlikely won’t need to bring in more spending cuts and tax increases in 2012.

Following their second-worst year in history, hedge funds posted a positive first quarter as the Dow Jones Credit Suisse Core Hedge Fund Index ended Q1 up 2.75 percent.

• ADP Report Says 209K Jobs Added In March, Business Insider, April 4, 2012
• US Jobless Claims at 357K – Within Expectations, Forex Crunch, April 5, 2012
• Greece extends deadline for final bond swap, Associated Press, April 5, 2012
• Irish Central Bank Sees Signs of Stability, The Wall Street Journal April 5, 2012
• Hedge Funds Dip In March, FINalternatives, April 6, 2012
• U.S. Hiring Seen Recovering, Reflects Optimism, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, April 9, 2012

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

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In an optimistic article published by Bloomberg Businessweek, it is predicted that despite March’s minor employment setback, the US job market will continue to grow throughout April. Predictions by Deutsche Bank economists Joseph LaVorgna and Carl Riccadonna illustrate that due to increased consumer confidence, the hiring world will expand at a rate of about 200,000 new positions per month during 2012.

As companies sales increase, investing in new workers becomes an attractive prospect for upping productivity. Thanks to strong consumer spending up climbs, the jobless rate appears to be doing the opposite. This is clearly demonstrated in March’s numbers, where it fell to 8.2 percent – the lowest it’s been in three years. In a recent Bloomberg survey of 70 economists, it was determined that the US economy is healing at an estimated median of 2.2 percent; a bit heftier than last years 1.7 percent.

With all the positive outlooks swirling around the US job market, inevitably a balance must be struck meaning someone’s gotta suffer. The stocks are assuming that role as they fell, bringing with them the S&P 500 Index to 1.2 percent. Asian stocks also declined for a fourth day, while China’s recent inflation increase killed hopes of the government easing monetary policy.

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.