Archive for June 23rd, 2010

My first internship was working for Bear Stearns long ago.  I was cold-calling potential clients for stockbrokers trying to spread the news on the attractive offerings that we had to offer.  One day, when I was tired of pitching Paramount as takeover target, I was perusing the Wall Street Journal and stumbled on to some interesting story.  I don’t remember the company that the WSJ was mentioning but I do remember what my respective stockbroker said that day when I showed him the article: “It’s yesterday’s news, kid. Who cares. Find me the company that will be making headlines tomorrow”.

I didn’t take any offense to what he said as he is right because when you are trading equities you should not be trading ‘yesterday’s news’.  Equities gap, and they gap quite sizably from day to day.  When a story comes out, the market-maker will adjust the price accordingly.  Thus, if you are trying to buy or sell a security that just had news, you will not be receiving yesterday’s closing price.  Not even close.

Luckily in the currency markets there are no individual market-makers that control the spot prices.  Just imagine if you were a trader this week and wanted to buy EUR/JPY after the China central bank announcement regarding the CNY.  If you had to go through a market-maker you’d probably pay an additional 30-50 pips as the market initially saw this as a reflection of confidence on the global economy.    Of course in the end the announcement from China was considered not such a big deal and EUR/JPY would eventually collapse.  Luckily you probably figured this out and would have gotten out of your trade close to even.  If you had paid the market-maker the additional 30-50 pips then it would have been similar to buying a house in the US in 2007 and trying to sell today. Ouch. Similar to the real estate market trading equities is far from always being a liquid and transparent market.  If they could offer liquid equity markets throughout the day then don’t you think they would do so?

I harp on another instance where all markets were caught by surprise which is on February 18th of this year.  This is when the Fed raised the discount rate by 25 bps to 0.75%.  They did this action 30 minutes after US equities closed their normal trading session.  So as an equity trader if you wanted to be involved you had to stray outside your favored market as your market was closed!  Hopefully you didn’t buy or sell too many futures contracts as those become very expensive in a hurry.  Currency traders could have just clicked “Mine” or “Yours” and if you felt your trade had gone to its limits you could have closed it out at any time.

There is nothing like trading the markets profitably when the market-makers have all gone home or are stuck on a subway and may be oblivious to current market events!

If you want to trade a market on a short-term basis there is only one market to trade which also happens to be the world’s largest market, the foreign exchange market.

This report is for your information only and does not constitute investment or business advice or an offer to buy or sell securities.

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results.

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The question of whether someone really should not be a Forex trader is one that’s not often brought up in discussions between market participants. It’s almost as if the baseline assumption is that the sole criterion is that you want to trade. While I’m a believer in the view that just about anyone can learn, there are limits to that. Ignoring the obviously physical and mental disabilities, here are the ones I think are most important.

Lack of Impulse Control
If you cannot keep yourself from acting on impulse – meaning making snap decisions without a plan – then you’re likely not going to do well in trading. Successful trading means applying a consistent edge. That, in turn, requires a plan that is being followed, not making random trades when the mood hits.

There is probably some confusion here when the subject of gut instinct comes into play. Here’s the deal, though. If you’ve only just started trading, you have no gut instinct. That comes from long experience. If you’re a rookie making gut trades, for your own good you should stop now. Any success you’ve had to this point is almost certainly a function of luck, not skill.

A Troubled Emotional State
We all go through periods when we’re in a mixed up emotional state. It could be relationship issues, family difficulties, the death of a loved one, stress at work, or any number of other things that put you off your game. These are not good times to trade. Granted, trading can be an escape from the emotional strains in some cases, but that’s only if the trader can consistently execute their normal work and strategy without it being impacted by what’s going on in the rest of their life.

Trading has a way of really exposing emotional problems, even among the most stable of individuals. If you’ve already got some mental strains going on, trading is likely to either make it worse, or to see you feed on that emotion in destructive ways – like trading angry. It is best to stay clear of the markets when these sorts of things happen if there’s any chance of spill-over or distraction.

Looking for a Quick Buck
Trading is not a get rich quick program. Any systems or broker ads that lead you believe otherwise are being deceptive. As any trader who’s been around more than a year will tell you, trading is a marathon, not a sprint. If you come into the market looking to make a fast killing you are almost certainly going to blow your trading account up because you’ll end up taking much too much risk. Basically, you’ll be a gambler rather than a trader.

I could probably toss in “those who think trading is going to be easy”, but that might rule out almost every new trader.

That all said, though, the things I’ve noted above can all be viewed as changeable. Lives can calm down. People can learn to follow a plan rather than just do whatever occurs to them at a given time. The gambling impulse can be replaced by a more long-run view. That means there’s hope for just about everyone, so long as they do right by their expectations.

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results.

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

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