Archive for March 15th, 2010

There’s just one week left to comment on the CFTC’s proposed rule changes 75 FR 3282.  This ruling proposes that a Forex IB must enter into a guarantee agreement with a CFTC-regulated Forex Dealer Member (FDM), along with a requirement that the Forex IB may be a party to only one guarantee agreement at a time.  That means that an IB can work with only one Forex broker at a time, and that means less choice for traders and less business opportunity for independent US Introducing Brokers.

If you, like Currensee and the other members of the IB coalition, oppose this ruling, it’s time to make your voice heard.  Visit IBcoalition.org to learn more about the issue and send an email to the CFTC.  Just a few lines will suffice.  The CFTC will post all the comments they receive, and the more they get, the better the odds are that they will change their plans.

If you need more inspiration on the issue, check out Tell the CFTC that one size doesn’t fit all by Dave Lemont and Dear CFTC: who are you really protecting? by Asaf Yigal.

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results.

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

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The last week has been pretty quiet in Forex in what have largely been sideways trends. In fact, even the cross rates have been lacking trend. So how to do trade this and when do you realise that the dynamic is changing? There are a variety of ways of doing so that I will explain now. Taking the EUR/USD daily chart the last month has seen three occasions when new lows have been made by small amounts that failed to start a fresh downward trend. The move to new lows on Feb 18 also began what I call an inside bar pattern. This is where price never closes below the lowest point made from that day. It’s important to remember that range can expand within this formation. Next is the weekly chart, which shows a succession of Doji’s. This indicates a lack of trend, but I attach equal importance to it being a reversal or continuation pattern. Finally returning to the daily chart, we have a pattern that is building which is called a saucer bottom. The chart below shows the trend line that is built in this formation.

So what does this mean from a trading perspective? The ideal bullish scenario is that price comes back to the trend line and then resumes the up trend. This would then be confirmed by price closing above 1.3840, which would leave behind what is called a bottom heavy trend. This is defined by looking at the downtrend that began in December. It is clear to see that the most amount of time has been spent at the lows, which in combination with a large short position being shown on the commitment of traders opens up the possibility of a swift short covering rally if 1.3840 is breached. The first sign that the bullish scenario is not panning out would be moves below the exact point of most time in this sideways move which is 1.3601. This would coincide with the trend line being broken and would mean the sideways patterns is continuing until either 1.3840 or new closing lows are made.

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results.

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