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Our Two Cents – Week of 5/14/12

Rain, rain, go away. While Boston has been under rain showers for the past week, and recovering from the Celtics loss May 14, we drizzled some of the top headlines from the financial markets into this week’s roundup.

In the U.S. the economy continues to show signs of improvement. Jobless claims now stand at 367,000—1,000 less than last week, and job openings in March are the highest in almost four years, as employers advertised 3.74 million job openings. Additionally, economic confidence remains steady at -18, up slightly from the previous week and slightly better …Continue Reading

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

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There’s a massive amount of commentary in the news and among market participants about JP Morgan and the big loss it reported earlier this week. The politicians, and anyone else calling for stricter regulation of the banks, are having a grand old time with this development, suggesting that Dodd-Frank and the Volcker Rule were exactly intended to avoid this sort of thing happening. Actually, I’d argue that they are (or should be) designed to ensure the security of the financial system (FDIC insurance being there to protect depositors). To that end, here we are with no risk to the …Continue Reading

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

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It is only a matter of weeks since a number of European leaders, including the French President Nicholas Sarkozy and Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti, declared the euro-zone crisis to be “almost over.”  Financial markets jumped to the same conclusion following the large provision of liquidity by the European Central Bank (ECB) in two large three-year long-term refinancing operations last December and late-February respectively.

The calm provided by the ECB’s unconventional liquidity facilities proved fragile however, and stress returned to the zone’s sovereign bond markets once data confirmed that economic conditions continue to deteriorate.  The contraction in economic activity is …Continue Reading

Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

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What do you get when you combine a handful of the best Forex industry professionals, educators, and analysts; a roomful of enthusiastic traders looking to improve their strategy; and the beautiful locale of Barcelona, Spain? The 2012 International Traders Conference, of course!

It’s no secret that one of the best ways to increase your Forex trading success is by learning as much about the industry as possible, and at the ITC, the emphasis falls primarily on education. Here, attendees will not only have the opportunity to experience FX professionals presenting a variety of fast-paced and highly informative talks, but they …Continue Reading

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

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In the webinar a couple weeks ago a question came up from one of the attendees as to when the best time of day is to trade. This is a question that comes up a lot among forex day traders, though obviously most folks who seek to operate in that arena are constrained by the time zone in which they live. I’m going to present two distinctly different answers to the question – ones that contradict each other.

First, conventional wisdom
When the question of best time of day comes up the answer often put forward is the London/New York overlap …Continue Reading

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

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Our Two Cents – Week of 5/7/12

After watching I’ll Have Another race for the crown in the 138th Kentucky Derby last weekend, we’ll have another pass at our biggest headlines in the financial markets.

In the U.S., the economy added 115,000 jobs in April as the unemployment rate dropped to 8.1 percent from 8.2 percent. While the April figures registered less than initially forecast, economists said there wasn’t a reason to panic yet because the warmer winter months could have encouraged employers to start their spring hiring early. The private sector posted a gain of 119,000 jobs, according to ADP.

In …Continue Reading

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

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World stock markets enjoyed an almost 25 per cent gain from the cyclical low registered last October through mid-March, as the myriad of concerns weighing on investor sentiment slipped into the background.  Investor enthusiasm for risk assets returned, as the previously growing concern that the global economic expansion was set to falter all but vanished, as a steady stream of data surpassed market expectations.

The resilience has contributed to a general air of complacency amongst investors, who would do well to remember the old stock market maxim, “Sell in May and go away, come back on St. Leger day.”  The …Continue Reading

Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

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U.S. stocks have more than doubled in price from the crisis-induced low registered during the spring of 2009, and posted the strongest quarterly performance since the late-1990s during the first three months of the current calendar year.  The sharp reversal in the stock market’s fortunes, following more than a decade of dismal returns, has prompted previously hibernating uber-bulls to call an end to the secular bear market.  They argue that a sustained multi-year upswing in equity prices is now underway.

One sell-side strategist has gone as far as to predict a near-doubling in the Dow Jones Industrial Average to 25,000 …Continue Reading

Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

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Last week’s webinar session featuring Currensee Trade Leader Taylor Growth delivered strong information on a “conservative” trading strategy and its pertinence to these current tempestuous market times. The concepts touched upon and insight provided could be quite useful to anyone involved in Forex, so I thought I would share some of what was revealed.

With a historical success rate in the high 90’s and currently up 1.5% this month, Taylor Growth seems to be doing something right. Tom Dawson, COO at Taylor Growth who spoke on the company’s behalf, attributes this success to a few key concepts: preparation is integral, …Continue Reading

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.

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A question came up during the webinar last week regarding stop hunting. One of the attendees was curious about it, no doubt having heard the term bandied about among retail traders. This gets brought up on a fairly regular basis, mostly by folks who saw their stop get hit in a market that quickly reverses back in the direction of their trade (see Stop-hunting is NOT the problem some people say). Let me try to clarify things.

A definition
First, let me explain what exactly stop hunting (running) means.

Basically, what we’re talking about here is one or more market participants attempting …Continue Reading

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Be sure to read the full risk disclosure before trading Forex. Please note that Forex trading involves significant risk of loss. It is not suitable for all investors and you should make sure you understand the risks involved before trading. Performance, strategies and charts shown are not necessarily predictive of any particular result. And, as always, past performance is no indication of future results. Investor returns may vary from Trade Leader returns based on slippage, fees, broker spreads, volatility or other market conditions.